2008 Market Trends
Model year 2008 sees green vehicle cachet soaring in the American automobile industry. Faced with $100-per-barrel oil and new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements that mandate an average car and light truck fuel economy of 35 miles per gallon by 2020, automakers are rushing to display a wide array of efficient vehicles. Transportation is the second largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, so vehicles are at the forefront of the global warming discussion as well.
These growing concerns play a significant role in current vehicle market trends. The small, fuel-efficient car rose to prominence this year amid an overall decline in auto sales. The compact car segment experienced a 33% rise in sales in 2007, as cars such as the Chevrolet Aveo, Honda Fit, Smart Fortwo and Toyota Yaris surged in popularity. This trend is likely to continue into the future, with some experts predicting that sales of small cars will increase even further in the next few years. Yet, high impact vehicles remain prominent in manufacturers’ product plans, due in large part to the sustained demand for the pick-up truck and large sport utility vehicle across the country. While overall sales for trucks and SUVs declined in 2007, the luxury SUV subgroup saw a drop in sales figures of a mere 0.9%, indicating that the demand for luxury trucks and SUVs is relatively insensitive to rising oil prices.
Nevertheless, the hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV) market saw the exciting addition of several new models this year, including the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon Hybrid. Averaging 18 miles per gallon in combined city/highway driving, these vehicles are a step up in fuel economy for individuals who require the functionality of large utility vehicles but wish to reduce their impact on the environment. As the 2008 model year progresses, consumers will continue to see the proliferation of larger hybrid vehicles in showrooms across the United States. More broadly, the hybrid market experienced significant growth over the past year, with the sale of an additional 347,000 units, a 40% increase over 2006 sales. This brings the total number of hybrids on U.S. roads to approximately 970,000 through the end of 2007. Toyota sold 182,000 units of the Prius alone, pointing to the growing attractiveness of fuel-efficient vehicles in light of rising oil prices. State and federal tax credits also helped purchasers subsidize the higher up-front costs associated with hybrids. However, tax credits for some manufacturers’ vehicles are maxing out: Toyota hybrids receive no credit as of October 1st, 2007, and a phase-down for Honda’s vehicles began on Jan 1, 2008. This may boost sales of other hybrid models on the market.
Hybrid vehicles continue to achieve top Green Scores but take a significant hit this year due to changes in EPA’s fuel economy test methodology. In an effort to provide label fuel economy estimates that better represent average fuel consumption under varied driving conditions, the EPA adopted test methods in model year 2008 that reflect today’s driving speeds and use of air conditioning, among other considerations. EPA anticipated that these new methods would have greater impact on the label value of high fuel efficiency vehicles, because increased driving loads more significantly reduce the fuel economy of efficient vehicles. And in fact, vehicles such as the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid drop two points in Green Score between 2007 and 2008, although they remain among the highest scoring vehicles in our guide. The change in test methodology raises the Green Score of low fuel efficiency vehicles by an average of 1 to 2 points, while middling vehicles see little change in their scores between 2007 and 2008.
The flurry of activity on green technologies is not just about hybrids. Improvements to conventional gasoline engines are entering the market at a much-accelerated pace. The Ford Motor Company will soon introduce its “EcoBoost” technology, which aims to achieve a 20% increase in fuel economy and 15% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in half-a-million vehicles annually in the next 5 years. The EcoBoost engine family combines turbocharging and direct injection technology to improve fuel economy without compromising driving performance. More generally, smaller, turbocharged engines are being used to reduce fuel consumption while maintaining power. This technology has gained popularity in the last year, with Volkswagen using 1.4 liter engines to replace 2.0 liter units in its European vehicles. Cylinder deactivation, the fuel-saving engine design in which some cylinders shut off when maximum power is not needed, continues to be incorporated into greater numbers of vehicles this year. Although the concept has been around for a few decades, it was not until recently that advanced computer control allowed for an effective cylinder deactivation design. Known under branded names such as "Multi-Displacement System" (DaimlerChrysler), "Active Fuel Management" (GM), or "Variable Cylinder Management" (Honda), this technology offers modest fuel economy improvements with no loss of performance.
Turning to tailpipe emissions, the phase-in of federal Tier 2 standards is complete for cars and lighter trucks, and will end for heavier trucks at the close of 2008. As evidenced by the increasing number of vehicles certified at lower (cleaner) Tier 2 bins and cleaner California emission standards, vehicles today contribute less smog-forming pollutants to the atmosphere in general. Most 2008 vehicle models are certified either at the Tier 2 Bin 5 or LEV II emission standard. A mere 5% of vehicles are allotted to the dirtiest permanent Tier 2 bin (Bin 8) and transitional bins (10-1 and 10-2), while 22.4% of vehicles fell into bins lower than 5, indicating a continuing shift towards generally cleaner vehicles. Likewise, by next year, when the phase-in of Tier 2 standards is complete for the heaviest vehicles covered by the program (including medium-duty passenger vehicles, or MDPVs, up to 10,000 pounds), consumers will see cleaner vehicles throughout the range of available trucks and SUVs. The completion of the phase-in requires that each manufacturer maintain a fleet-wide average of at least a Tier 2 Bin 5 certification.
The super-clean, or so-called Super-Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicles (SULEVs), are, in many cases, also receiving a special California regulatory designation as Partial Zero-Emission Vehicles (PZEVs) for, among other things, having greater emissions control system durability and emitting near-zero levels of evaporative hydrocarbons. This year, SULEVs and PZEVs—emission levels not associated with gasoline vehicles even just a few years ago—are increasingly common in conventional vehicles. The number of gasoline nameplates meeting these standards has climbed steadily in recent years to more than 50 in 2008. And this progress in cutting-edge emissions control is not limited to fringe models. SULEVs and PZEVs are available this year in—to name a few— the Buick Lacrosse, Chevrolet Cobalt, Ford Focus, Mazda 3, Mazda Tribute, Nissan Altima, Subaru Outback, and Volkswagen Jetta. Unfortunately, because these vehicles require additional hardware and software controls (thereby making them a couple-hundred dollars more expensive than their less-clean counterparts), many automakers have chosen to sell SULEV and PZEV models only in California and the other clean car states, where they are mandated. Nonetheless, there is a small but growing contingent of nationally-available PZEV models. The 2008 Honda Civic Hybrid, for example, is sold nationwide carrying a dual-certification of PZEV and Tier 2 Bin 2, as are the Toyota Camry Hybrid and the Volkswagen Jetta. The 2008 Ford Focus carries a dual-certification of PZEV and Tier 2 Bin 3.
The automotive industry is progressing toward the “greening” of America’s fleet, but there are several key steps that the nation must take to achieve maximum fuel efficiency. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 marked the first time in 32 years that the U.S. Congress had raised fuel economy standards. While the new requirement that vehicles average 35 miles per gallon by 2020 is critical to confronting climate change and oil dependence, the United States continues to lag behind Europe and even China, where new vehicles are expected to average 43 miles per gallon and 35 miles per gallon, respectively, in 2008. The new U.S. system will set “attribute-based” fuel economy targets so that larger vehicles are held to less-stringent standards, and the average fuel economy requirement for each manufacturer is determined by the mix of vehicles it sells. Fuel efficiency requirements have yet to be set for work trucks, such as large pickups, and for heavy-duty trucks over 10,000 pounds, although the new energy law sets timelines for addressing these vehicles as well.
On average, every new large SUV cruising the streets produces 40 percent more climate-threatening carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than a new car. Large vehicles are likely to remain prominent in the U.S. market for years to come, so improving their fuel economy is essential to reducing the environmental impact of the U.S. auto fleet as a whole. In fact, bumping up the low end of the efficiency spectrum is the quickest way to save fuel and reduce CO2 emissions: raising the fuel economy of, say, a Yukon Denali from 14 to 16 miles per gallon would save over 100 gallons per year for the typical driver and eliminate 1.3 tons of CO2 emissions, while achieving the same savings through improvements to a 42 mile-per-gallon Civic Hybrid would require a 25 mpg boost, to 67 mpg.
Battery-powered electric vehicles (EVs) in prior years earned high Green Scores in our listings, but these models have not been available for several years. EVs appeal to some consumers for their high-tech design, quiet operation, ability to recharge at home, independence from petroleum, and simply because they are among the cleanest cars available. However, batteries have a high cost and limited range, and these constraints have to date kept EVs from being a practical choice for most consumers. Recently, advocates have promoted the idea of a crossbreed of an EV and a hybrid, known as a plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle (PHEV). This design concept overcomes the range limitations of EVs and may one day become a green vehicle option for consumers. Automakers are responding to the interest in this technology and have incorporated plug-in features into concept cars like Chevrolet's Volt and Ford's Flexible Series Hybrid Edge. But while several PHEVs are promised for the year 2010, no automakers are currently producing PHEVs for the consumer market, since they still face battery- and cost-related barriers. If developments in battery technology over the next few years are successful, however, a PHEV option with modest electric-only range could surface in the next wave of hybrid-electric vehicles.
This year, Honda's Civic GX again claimed the prize as the greenest vehicle of the year, thanks to the relatively clean, low-carbon fuel that powers it. For buyers with access to compressed natural gas, the Civic GX offers extremely low emissions levels with good driving range. The Civic GX is the only CNG vehicle being offered this year.
Greener Choices for Everyone
In fact, everyone can buy green. The most environment-friendly step you can take is simple: first evaluate your needs and your budget, then look for the models with the greenest scores among the cars and trucks that meet your needs and fit your budget. Even though some of our top ratings go to natural gas-powered vehicles or gasoline vehicles sold in limited areas, every class has nationally available gasoline vehicles that score significantly better than average.
Our Greener Choices table highlights some of the top-scoring gasoline vehicles in several segments of the market. The list includes only automatics, although many manual transmission versions have higher fuel economy. The excluded models that score even better might be good choices for some buyers. The point of the Greener Choices table is to show that there are ways to buy a cleaner and more efficient vehicle throughout the market.
The models listed in the Greener Choices table are available in most states. If you live in states that have adopted or are soon to adopt California's emissions requirements, including Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, or Washington state (or in some instances, neighboring states to these), cleaner versions of the Greener Choices models may be available to you.
It is also useful to look not only at the models in this table, but at competing models as well, since within a given size class, the better vehicles often score similarly. Thus, the Greener Choices table can get you focused on the set of models that will be among the best in their class in terms of environmental friendliness.
Buying green does more than fulfill your own personal commitment to protect the environment. Each greener choice by an individual consumer, of course, reduces pollution directly. But the market is also a give-and-take between consumers and manufacturers. As more and more consumers adopt the notion of buying green, automakers will increasingly look at environmentally friendly design as an opportunity, not just an obligation. Such feedback will motivate car companies to make further investments in improved technology, so that an expanded number of green cars and trucks will be available in the years ahead.
Finally, bear in mind that the average car or light truck is likely to be operational for a dozen or more years. Even if you don't keep your new vehicle for more than a few years, your choice affects the options available for used car buyers. So instead of having yet another gas-guzzler cruising the streets, the greener choice you make today can help cut pollution for years to come.
The Greenest of 2008
This year, the natural gas-powered Honda Civic GX claims the title as the greenest vehicle for the fifth year running. Toyota's hybrid-electric Prius, which places second, is the year's top-scoring gasoline vehicle, while Honda's Civic Hybrid ranks a close third. Rounding out the top five are the recently released Smart Fortwo Convertible and Coupe and Toyota Yaris. In total, the Greenest Vehicles list contains one natural gas, four hybrid-electric, and seven conventional gasoline vehicles, a mix of technologies that demonstrates some of the avenues automakers have taken in developing greener vehicles. Whether using hybrid gasoline-electric designs, compressed natural gas, or simply clean and efficient conventional gasoline designs, automakers have visibly demonstrated their ability to engineer with the environment in mind.
This year sees a number of changes to the nameplates on the Greenest Vehicles list. After being shut out of the top twelve in 2007, a domestic automaker makes an appearance on our top-twelve list. The 2008 Tier 2 Bin 3 / PZEV-certified Ford Focus comfortably takes the 9th spot in the annual ranking. Other new entries to the 2008 “Greenest” list include the Smart Fortwo Convertible/Coupe and the Mini Cooper/Clubman, both small cars that achieve excellent fuel economy. However, Hyundai’s PZEV-certified Elantra narrowly misses a spot on our list, landing in 13th place as a result of the above-mentioned new entries. Following suit are the Kia Rio, Hyundai Accent, Chevrolet Cobalt, and Pontiac G5, all of which score very well according to our ranking but face more competition this year from several clean vehicles that have entered the market. This is, of course, good news to consumers, who have greater options when it comes to buying the greenest vehicle that meets their needs and fits their budget.
Other good news is the fact that the vast majority of the year's greenest vehicles are widely available coast-to-coast. Not too long ago, the list was dominated by vehicles for sale only in California, while today more than 80 percent of the Greenest Vehicles can be purchased in any state.
Diesels and Light Trucks: Still A Concern
Model year 2008 sees a large number of diesel-powered SUVs and crossovers continue to dominate our “Meanest” list. This year, nearly half of the list is populated by diesel models, such as the Mercedes-Benz GL 320 CDI, R320 CDI, ML 320 CDI, and 3.0-liter Jeep Grand Cherokee, and the meanest vehicle this year is the Volkswagen Touareg. Although these engines offer a substantial efficiency improvement over comparable gasoline models, the poor tailpipe emissions performance of the diesel models is sufficiently damaging to the environment that it earns them a place on the year's Meanest Vehicles list.
Manufacturers of the diesel models on our “Meanest” list have already unveiled plans to bring cleaner diesel models to the country in 2008, containing more sophisticated emissions control systems that purportedly will meet the Tier 2 Bin 5 emission standard. However, diesel models such as the Mercedes-Benz E320 Bluetec continue to be sold in the United States with only a Tier 2 Bin 8 designation and are still not widely available in states that abide by California’s emission standards. No clean, diesel-powered vehicles are likely to make a showing in the 2008 calendar year, despite continued promises from manufacturers.
Diesels aside, the remainder of the Meanest Vehicles list is populated with large pickups, large SUVs, and exotic sports and luxury cars. The modest sales volumes of the latter mitigate concern about those vehicles, though the same cannot be said for pickups and SUVs, which even despite high gasoline prices are still seeing continued market interest. This year, the “Meanest” list includes the Hummer H2, the GMC Yukon 2500, and the Mercedes-Benz GG55 AMG, all of which achieve Green Scores of 18.
With the advent of the Tier 2 tailpipe standards, the car/light truck distinction is disappearing for purposes of emissions regulation, so automakers are now installing improved tailpipe controls on some of their minivans, pickups, and SUVs. While this partially addresses the tailpipe emissions problem, dirtier versions of these light trucks, meeting the bare minimum of pollution control requirements, are not uncommon.
If large light trucks were used mainly for true heavy-duty hauling, fewer would be sold and their pollution would be less of a problem. But automakers began marketing these vehicles for passenger use in the early '90s, pushing their sales beyond car sales and creating a rapidly growing source of global warming pollution. By and large, automakers have much work to do when it comes to improving SUV and pickup fuel economies. Nevertheless, model year 2008 did see the introduction of hybrid versions of the Chevrolet Tahoe C1500 and the GMC Yukon C1500, an indication perhaps that automakers are beginning to consider the environmental impacts of large light trucks.
Since our Green Scores reflect both fuel economy and tailpipe emissions, the high fuel consumption alone suffices to push down the environmental ratings of the largest light trucks. Some of the largest SUVs are so massive that they are classified as heavy-duty (or "Class 2B") trucks, which has made them exempt from fuel economy laws and, prior to Tier 2, subject to weaker tailpipe standards. That exemption ends with the implementation of the new fuel economy standards, although heavy pickups (8,500 to 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight) will get their own, presumably less stringent, standard.
The average fuel economy of all new cars, passenger vans, SUVs, and pickups steadily declined over the period 1998-2004. The main reason for this drop is historical growth in the market of large SUVs and pickups. These leather-lined "trucks," which saw steady sales growth throughout the '90s and into this decade, are no more fuel-efficient than their less luxurious predecessors. According to the EPA, average fuel economy began to turn up again in 2005, reaching 25.3 miles per gallon in 2006 and 2007 — still lower than it was in 1986, however.
If you usually carry multiple passengers in your SUV or minivan, however, the environmental impact per passenger is lower than if you drive alone. Similarly, pickup trucks would be more environmentally friendly if regularly used to carry the loads for which they are designed. Thus, a light truck can be "green" when its capacity is put to good use. For example, while large vans like the GMC Savanna Passenger end up at the low end of our rankings because they score poorly, they may not really be "mean," since they're used primarily for carrying multiple people.
Crossover Takeover Continues
The last few years have seen the boundaries between cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs become less and less clear with the introduction of numerous vehicles featuring both car-like handling and SUV-like spaciousness and functionality. These so-called "crossover" vehicles, including SUVs with pickup truck beds, station wagons with SUV-like off-road abilities, and altogether new vehicles that defy conventional categories, have been hitting the streets with great popularity. Between January of 2007 and January of 2008, crossover sales grew by 15.1%. Some of these vehicles are variations on the heavy-and-rugged sort, such as Chevrolet's Avalanche, a SUV/pickup crossbreed. Volvo's XC70 and XC90 walk the line between touring wagon and all-purpose utility vehicle. Head-turners like the Chevrolet HHR and Mazda 5 don't readily fit the classification of either a car or a truck. 2008 saw the arrival of the Nissan Rogue, a small crossover vehicle that straddles the car and SUV classifications and tops its Green Book class for environmental friendliness.
What this newfound popularity in crossover vehicles means for consumers is greater choice in styling and functionality. For some people, a crossover may serve as well as (or better than) a SUV or pickup truck for hauling goods around. For others, crossovers may offer the extra functionality not found in conventional cars. Either way, automakers are capitalizing on the uniqueness of these new vehicles, which have become a market segment unto their own.
So how do crossover vehicles rank environmentally? Not surprisingly, with the exception of the massive SUV/pickup combos, they generally score better than trucks, yet worse than cars. This is largely because their fuel economies fall between those of cars and trucks. Ultimately, the environmental benefit of crossover designs depends upon how they're used: for zipping around town, they won't be saving the planet, but they can offer a greener alternative to SUVs for ski trips to the mountains.
Because crossover vehicles don't fit exactly into the vehicle classes designated on this site, they have been listed in the class to which they are most related or that best reflects their position in the market. Keep in mind that while each listing's class ranking (superior to inferior) compares it to others in the same vehicle class, the Green Score is not class-specific, and can be used to compare vehicles among any classes. So the Green Score will often be the best way to evaluate crossover models.
Bi- and Flex-Fuel Vehicles
Automakers are not currently offering vehicles with bi-fuel capability, meaning the ability to run on either an alternative fuel or gasoline. However, production of flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs), designed to run on either gasoline or the alcohol-gasoline blend known as E85 (85 percent ethanol, with 15 percent gasoline), is growing rapidly.
ACEEE's Green Book® Online does not provide listings for flex-fuel vehicles since their environmental performance typically is not substantially different from that of their gasoline-only counterparts. FFVs may be cleaner when running on ethanol — although that is a matter of some dispute — but in practice they rarely do. A number of automakers are aggressively marketing FFVs in national ad campaigns and making them widely available to the general market in a number of models. The renewed interest in ethanol as a tool to reduce U.S. oil dependence has led to a substantial increase in the number of fueling stations offering ethanol and in fuel production. But E85 is still available in less than one percent of filling stations, while automakers are getting higher credits toward their fuel economy requirements with every FFV they sell. Ironically, such sales are causing more pollution overall because of the corresponding decrease in fleetwide fuel economy. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 extends the FFV credit for several years, but phases it out entirely by 2020.
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Introduction
Best Vehicles by Class
Greenest Vehicles of 2008
Meanest Vehicles for the Environment
in 2008
The Year's Market Trends
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